Why become a Rogue?

Hi everyone! I’m Cris Smith, a member of Team Swish, and a competitive Magic Grinder. I have multiple NRG series top 8’s and a win qualifying for NRG Champs.

Throughout this article I will be speaking in broad terms but the examples will be Pioneer-related due to the recent PT. The reason I think this article is important and relevant is the PT results! Seth Manfield registered Rakdos Vampires, which was considered a Rogue/jank deck, and the other finalist finished a strong run using Boros Heroic. Why did they register these decks and what led to their success?

Let's start off with the theory of registering Rogue and off-meta decks, then move into why you should register these styles of decks?

There are many cards and decks available in every format! You can look to build with your favorite cards, weird interesting interactions, unique combos, and more! Most of these decks are considered to be, Jank, or rogue strategies, but even still fun, and results can still be had with the right ideas. If you start off with a build or even a specific card people are not expecting, your opponent may not be able to deal with it. A prominent aspect of playing competitively is anticipating a target metagame and discovering an angle for you to combat it. A player may be able to deal with a specific threat in your deck, but if they choose the wrong threat or target it at the wrong time they can be overwhelmed by the axis that they weren’t prepared for. When your opponent isn't familiar with the combo, or synergies it will lead to wins due to improper threat assessment. A lot of rogue deck enthusiasts have considered this the “Rogue Deck Advantage''.

Why play for Rogue Deck Advantage over top tier decks?

That is a frequent question that I have been asked, and there's many variables within this question. For me, I believe that people get so caught up in the already existing decks that they won't branch out for new ideas or metagame decisions. For example, when I started playing Yawg, it was a new deck that people didn't really understand. I was playing it exclusively and won games due to my opponents not knowing the small interactions in any given game, or even the random 1-ofs that could be played. NRG Mundelein April 2022 was a pivotal part of my Rogue Deck journey. I won the event with this unique deck! Through the event I played versus a few players who stated they have never tested vs the deck, and even experienced players with lower amounts of reps versus the deck. For example, I played against Issac Bullwinkle who had some reps against the deck but their list, nor sideboard, had Subtlety or good Yawg hate. Which led me to a victory, where more hate could've changed the outcome.

Another example of this is shown on the PT with this Rakdos Vampires deck. There's some interactions that are available in this deck that have never been seen in any other deck. I'm referring to Vein Ripper. This is a new card from Murders at Karlov Manor. The giant Flying threat can be played as early as Turn 3 with a quick Sorin -3 putting it into play. This threat also has some very important text outside of just Flying 6/5. The most important part is Ward - Sacrifice a creature. This is important to the card due to the ability for your opponent to target Vein Ripper with a card like Lightning Axe and with the ward trigger on the stack, the Vampires player can kill the opponent's only creature thus countering the spell. Before the event this is an interaction no one really thought about or played with in mind. I can almost guarantee this was relevant multiple times throughout the weekend. This is an extreme example, but on a smaller scale there's sequences available for the deck where you go Copter into turn 3 Dusk Legion Zealot and Thoughtseize and attack which allows you to gain card advantage. Finally the abilities of Sorin aren't something really talked about. Especially the part where it can sacrifice a creature to deal 3 damage to any target, which will also trigger the Vein Ripper.

These are some of the examples why running Rogue decks are going to give slight or large advantages. On the flip side if these Rogue decks can spike events why don't more players play them?

To keep from rambling too much and beating around the bush. Rogue decks are more often than not, just bad, and frankly unplayable. Most pilots of these decks tend to cope over their results in specific events instead of increasing their scope on their overall percentages. The easiest example of this is going to MTGMelee, sorting by archetypes and their Win percentage. NRG Chicago February 2024 has 9 decks with 12 players and 29 matches totalling a 0% win rate combined. Another good example is Frank Karsten's post where it shows metagame breakdown and their Win percentage. The RC’s post that led into Seattle shows rogue decks having a 44% win rate, and why play decks with 44% win rates when we have decks in the same post accruing upwards of 60% win rates.

Where do you go now with this information is your story to tell. For me I'm going to step away from rogue decks and attempt innovating tiered decks. With this I'm excited to see future rogue decks taking down events and I'll see y'all in the next one!